BFW ANALYSIS: WHY BAYERN MUNICH IS A BIGGER CHALLENGE FOR REAL MADRID THAN MANCHESTER CITY

Real Madrid. 14-time Champions League winners. The club that delivers on the biggest occasions.

It was them once again prevailing against a strong Manchester City side, courtesy of a splendid defensive effort that saw them camping in their box for 90% of the game. The only stat that matters, however, is the scoresheet, and the match ending in a draw meant the tie proceeded to penalties. That is where the inevitable happened.

In the UCL, you never let it go to penalties against Real Madrid. The aura of Los Blancos took them over the finish line. And the reward? Having to face Bayern Munich in the Champions League semifinals.

This is a fixture with a lot of history, and arguably the biggest matchup in all of Europe. The two sides have faced each other thrice in the last decade, with Real Madrid emerging victorious on all occasions. That might give the false impression that this is a lopsided matchup, but nothing could be further from the truth. The past two matchups have featured razor-thin margins, with the outcome heavily influenced by poor officiating.

Everybody knows that Real Madrid is Bayern’s hardest opponent yet, but the converse is also true. Bayern Munich is Real Madrid’s sternest challenge yet. Yes, they will be trickier to beat than Manchester city, and here’s a breakdown of why.

You can have the ball!

Bayern Munich, particularly after the Guardiola era has dominated possession against almost everyone. The team has always played a very attacking game, creating chances via possessions and ball circulations. This has yielded quite a lot of trophies, but just one Champions League trophy in the past 10 seasons. Parked buses have often been a problem for Bayern in cup competitions... Villarreal (2022) and Atletico Madrid (2016) spring to mind.

Not anymore though.

Real Madrid will face a very different Bayern this time. Tuchel’s Bayern is arguably more comfortable playing against possession, and showed against Arsenal that bunkering up and striking on the counter could be just as viable an option. When the two sides met back in 2018, possession stats were lopsided: 60% for Bayern, 40% for Real. Los Blancos can no longer count on their usual strategies and ‘vibe-ball’, since Bayern could just choose to frustrate them by letting them have the ball and exhausting them, and then choosing to spring an attack when they get the impression that they are in control.

In other words, this Bayern side could potentially out-Madrid the 14 time champions.

Chaos always prevails

Real Madrid showed their game-plan against strong attacking sides vs. Manchester City. The team can bunker down impressively, and even defend with eleven men if required. Bayern Munich would therefore seldom have a numerical advantage in the opposition box. This is where Tuchel thrives. Chaos.

Pep Guardiola set his team up to dominate Real, not to beat them. Tuchel could make use of the agents of chaos in the team: Thomas Müller, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sané, and Harry Kane are all players who are very dangerous in half-spaces. The Real Madrid defense is going to mark every player thoroughly, which is why swift changes in direction, quick passing, dummies, distracting runs, and nifty dribbling would be needed to prise open the vault.

Bayern may have overcome Arsenal without Müller, but Real Madrid is a different beast, and the book cannot defeat the librarian. Which is why Bayern Munich needs that awkward pass, that weird shot, that disruptive movement. Real Madrid need to be caught off guard, and City’s beautiful passing sequences did nothing to achieve that. Bayern Munich’s agents of chaos however, could get the job done.

Thomas has done it before

Thomas Tuchel has beaten Real Madrid convincingly (3-1 on aggregate) with a worse squad, winning the Champions League that season. His team played some of the most ugly football, but delivered on the scoresheet, and that is all that mattered in the end. This Bayern Munich side doesn’t play aesthetically pleasing football either, but seems to have a different vibe.

The players struggle, the formations are bizarre, the lineups are all over the place, but they fight for their lives on the pitch. Unlike Manchester City — always looking to make the extra pass and focused on the philosophy more than the victory, this Bayern side looks scrappy and ready to brawl, like a slightly drunk marine. Safe when left undisturbed, but very dangerous when provoked.

Bayern Munich do not have a clear philosophy anymore. The game-plan is whatever Tuchel conjures up after studying the opponent. It could even be bunkering up for 90 minutes. But the strategy certainly won’t be straightforward for Real Madrid.

We are about to witness a spectacle.

2024-04-24T21:17:40Z dg43tfdfdgfd