SCOUTING BAYERN MUNICH: THE STRANGEST FAMILIAR FOE
In the last 11 occasions when Real Madrid has reached the semi-finals of the Champions League, including the current run, they have encountered Bayern Munich in the knockout rounds five times, with four of these meetings in the semi-finals. These games represent the zenith of European football, a European classic of an exclusive kind.
Since 2021, this will be Real Madrid’s third encounter with Thomas Tuchel — another familiar foe, with whom, scores are tied at 1-1 in knockout Champions League football.
Bayern is a familiar opponent, historically. Tuchel is a familiar rival in recent history. Yet, Tuchel’s Bayern Munich somehow is the strangest profile of a team to scout or to scour patterns from ahead of a gigantic UEFA Champions League clash this Tuesday. But we still tried.
Bayern are the leader among Europe’s top five leagues for non-penalty expected goals (npxG) this season. They are fourth best in terms of npxG conceded. Having said that, their npxG difference and non-penalty goal difference is in a downward trajectory, compared its peak under Hansi Flick and even under Nagelsmann last season (for non-penalty goal difference).
Tuchel took over late last season and one noticeable difference in their threat creation (via passes, crosses and carries) this season is how they can create threat from both flanks. The inclusion of Raphaël Guerreiro as a left-back and as seen more recently at times, as a left-winger — has attributed to that.
Bayern themselves are susceptible to threat from the flanks as well, a pattern that has continued from last season.
Trying to stop the supply on the flanks has been Bayern’s defensive focus. They do it well and more frequently in their own half. Bayern are the team with the second-most tackles and interceptions in the Champions League this season, behind Dortmund.
No team left in the Champions League this season, has more touches in the attacking third than Bayern Munich (in their domestic league). For the same metric in this season’s Champions League, Bayern are behind PSG and Real Madrid, among the four semi-finalists. Their mid-third receptions have also improved as the under-performing double pivot of Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich has now been dismantled and Kimmich has been moved to right-back.
Both Nagelsmann and Tuchel like to be vertical with the ball without delay. It shows from their top three pass clusters and top three carry clusters — all having a (mean) progressive direction. With passes, Bayern were progressing more from the right last season; this season, two of those clusters have moved to the left. In terms of carries, it is worth noting how Bayern’s top cluster of carries is bringing the ball out from the mid-third.
