BFW ANALYSIS: HOW BAYERN MUNICH CAN BEAT REAL MADRID
The Champions League semifinals are upon the world, giving us another round of one of the most entertaining knockout phases the tournament has ever seen. The semifinal of Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain is definitely an interesting one, but all eyes are on the most prestigious match in the history of club football being played for the first time in seven years: Bayern Munich versus Real Madrid.
Real Madrid are known for winning against all odds and logic, but for a rare time in recent years, they come into the semifinals as favourites. However, Bayern have an ace up their sleeve: Thomas Tuchel.
Yes, Tuchel has several problems and is stylistically not the right fit for Bayern, but Tuchel’s specialty is winning knockout games against teams that outmatch his team technically through meticulous game planning, particularly in defense. However, to be clear, this article is not a predictive one. It is simply a look at a potential setup which Bayern could use to attempt to nullify the Champions League’s most successful team ever.
First there was fire, then there was smoke: The starting line-ups
Then that preacher man was hanging by a rope.
Before we go into the lineups, it’s important to note the absences that both teams have suffered. Bayern are missing the services of Bouna Sarr, Sacha Boey, Kingsley Coman and Dayot Upamecano, with Konrad Laimer, Matthijs de Ligt, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané doubtful. Real on the other hand are missing Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba, with Dani Carvajal also missing the first leg due to suspension. This means the most likely XIs will look something like this.
One can already begin to see where Bayern’s potential daggers could be slipped through. The same applies both ways, however.
I haven’t made my mind up, should I keep it? Bayern Munich in possession
I got big dog status, it ain’t no secret.
Real Madrid this season have loved keeping the ball, and for good reason as they have some of the best technical players in the world, full stop. This puts Bayern out of their element as they have been far less successful at dominating the ball — mostly down to the fact that Tuchel doesn’t aim to dominate the ball — but it puts Tuchel in his element, defending with his back against the wall. However, Bayern cannot simply sit in their own half as if anything, Real are experts of picking apart blocks using their technical and physical qualities combined with hypnotising combinations and movements from their extremely gifted forward players.
This tactical setup will focus on hitting Real Madrid quickly before they can settle into a shape after the ball is won, however the setup will also be prioritising defensive solidity in the case of a turnover from a counter-press or general loss of possession, as Real are perhaps even better at attacking on the break than they are at building up patiently.
In possession, Bayern revert to a system that has worked marvelously in the past, but with some tweaks.
Most notably, Leon Goretzka returns to his left sided defensive role, dropping into the defensive line in the early stage of build-up. In response to this, the defensive line shifts to accommodate him, and the wing-backs (Joshua Kimmich and Noussair Mazraoui) push up on the touchline. Kimmich may choose to sit slightly deeper than showcased if Real’s left-back doesn’t follow him, leaving him free, but such a movement may cause Real to push the entire defensive line up the field which would compact the space Bayern are able to play in, so Kimmich must be careful.
On the other side, Mazraoui moves down the touchline. This either leaves him free as the right-winger comes towards Goretzka, or it drags the right-midfielder out towards him which opens up a space in the middle for Harry Kane to drop into. Note that this movement must be last-minute and rehearsed with Manuel Neuer to make sure Real’s defensive midfielder doesn’t have time to react to Kane’s movement.
These movements open up three avenues for Bayern to build up.
Bayern can choose to play the ball towards Min-jae Kim and move it on towards Joshua Kimmich who can then create a two-versus-one on the right flank with Jamal Musiala.
Bayern can choose to play the ball towards Goretzka who quickly re-distributes to Mazraoui, Kane or Raphaël Guerreiro depending on where the open space is.
If Real’s left-winger comes tighter on Kim than depicted, it opens up a passing lane to Pavlović who is more than capable of advancing the ball on the half-turn or holding up the ball with a man on his back. Pavlović also has the ability to act as the wall in a wall-pass from Neuer to Kane, Guerreiro or even an inverting Mazraoui. More on that to come.
With the ball past the first line of the Real structure, the transition between Mazraoui and Goretzka is complete, with Goretzka slotting into the back three and Mazraoui inverting into the centre. However, the centre is not where the ball should be for any lengthy period of time, as Real will almost always have a numerical advantage here — note that in the illustration above, there is a three-versus-two situation in the middle, possibly four-versus-two if Real’s attacking midfielder drops. Therefore, Bayern’s priority should be getting the ball out of this zone as soon as possible, which can be done in a number of ways.
Müller’s positioning is key to this, as rather than playing as a traditional number 10, Müller challenges the defensive line for space, forcing Real’s centre-back to watch him closely. Real’s defensive midfielder will not abandon his screening duties either, which means that unless Real’s left-midfielder leaves Pavlović to cover the passing lane, Musiala and Kimmich have a two-versus-one against Real’s left-back. This effect can be accentuated by Pavlović moving towards the ball, forcing Real’s midfielder to make a decision on where to commit his position rather than being able to sit between both options. Mazraoui has both the vision and technical abilities to execute switches to the right side with precision during the game, making this a viable path to the final third, as well as having an unfailing ability to release the ball before losing it, making a cheap turnover near impossible.
This is, of course, not the only path to the final third, as if Real commit bodies to the right flank it will open up spaces through the middle and left areas, most notably the left half-space where one of Kane or Guerreiro can drop a few steps to receive (in this situation, Kane is already dropping slightly). Kane’s movement will drag either Real’s centre-back to mark Kane which will open up space for Müller to run towards goal and receive a one-touch through ball from Kane (or a direct through ball from Mazraoui), or will drag Real’s defensive midfielder towards the left half-space, opening up space for Musiala to come towards the centre and receive on the turn. Yet again, Bayern have several different paths to goal, and this is all without mentioning the possibility of a pass to Guerreiro who is faster than Real’s right-back (Lucas Vázquez). Beyond this, there is not a lot of tactical nuance but rather reliance on the players’ individual abilities in the final third with the situations given to them.
It’s all in motion, no stopping it now: Escaping the net in transition
I got nothing to lose and only one way up.
Bayern’s initial defensive shape is not a proper block shape, but rather a transition shape from the in-possession shape to minimise potential structural weaknesses in the time it takes to change shape.
In this case, Real’s defensive midfielder has the ball after a turnover. Immediately, Dier and Goretzka get tight on their respective attackers, preferring to stay slightly more central than them to try and jockey them into wide areas if they receive the ball. Mazraoui and Pavlović have the right-midfielder and left-winger in their respective cover shadows with Mazraoui intending to mark the right-midfielder, leaving only Real’s remaining midfielder as an option in the centre, with Musiala and Müller quickly closing down the player on the ball to force a decision. The most likely pass will be to the free man in the middle, which triggers a change in shape for Bayern.
With the ball in midfield, Mazraoui tightens up on the right-midfielder while Goretzka and Dier remain on their respective attackers. Kim gets tighter to Real’s left-wingers while Kimmich and Guerreiro drop deeper and the remaining offensive players begin to drop. This structure effectively kills all forward options and makes even a recycling of possession to the full-backs difficult, forcing the midfielder to attempt to carry the ball if Real want to hit on the break. The midfielder carrying the ball must now combat with Pavlović’s tenacity in the middle, as he closes him down. This should choke out Real’s quick transitions, with the only forward option being a potential through ball between Goretzka and Mazraoui — which should be easy for Bayern to hurl off the pitch as Goretzka is better positioned to get to the ball than Real’s right-midfielder — or a ball back to the centre-backs, causing Real to fall into a possessive build-up stage rather than being on the break. This is when Bayern truly transition into their block.
Welcome, my son: Real Madrid in possession
Welcome to the machine. *more non-descript Roger Waters noises*
Anyone else get squeamish looking at Eric Dier’s right ankle in that picture? Maybe it’s just me since I’ve torn my ankle ligaments multiple times from rolls.
With the ball in Real’s centre-backs’ possession, Bayern shift to their primary defensive structure, a hybrid of a 4-2-4 and a 4-4-2.
The central options are completely closed off with Kane and Müller covering them, and Goretzka and Pavlović sit just behind them, also having Real’s two central attackers in their cover shadow with Dier and Kim marking them too. The wing-backs take the wide players while Musiala and Guerreiro sit ever so slightly deeper, leaving the Real full-backs free to receive as the only viable options other than the goalkeeper. The centre-back must now release it or carry it.
In this instance, Real’s right sided centre-back decides to carry the ball. Kane immediately starts closing the space down while Goretzka tightens up on the midfielder Kane vacates, while Müller shifts his positioning to better cut off the potential new passing lane to Real’s deepest midfielder. Note that Guerreiro and Musiala do not tighten up on the full-backs, continuing to leave them free, once again opening up the option of a pass to them, which is exactly where we want them to go.
When the Real centre-backs choose to release the ball to their full-backs, Bayern’s pressing trap is triggered.
In this case, the ball comes to Real’s left-back. Musiala immediately tightens up on the player while Müller shifts from the midfield to close down the left-back from an obtuse angle to cut out the passing lane to the centre-back and Pavlović advances to cover the midfielder Müller vacated, completely shutting down any chance of a short pass. A switch is off the cards too as Guerreiro and Kane tie down the other defenders and the advanced players are all marked too, forcing the ball back to the keeper, from where Bayern can come back to their low block to start all over again.
These structures negate Real’s ability to progress the ball into the final third both on the break as well as through build-up, and are easy to transition to as Bayern have a number of shapes which they can cycle through depending on the situation with very little time needed, minimising the potential of gaps opening up while the shape changes both through the lack of time needed as well as the relatively simple transitions, with the only somewhat complex one being Mazraoui’s inversion, a transition which is protected by the fact that it occurs when Bayern have the ball as well as the fact that Goretzka is already slotted in behind him when this change occurs. Tuchel may have his plans, but these are ours.
What do you make of this game plan? Do you think it will be enough to shut down Real Madrid? Is there anything we missed? Let us know in the discussion below.
Looking for more thoughts and analysis on Bayern Munich’s massive Champions League showdown with Real Madrid? We’ve got you covered with our Bavarian Podcast Works — Preview Show, where we dive into the game, Bayern Munich’s tenuous injury situation, a guess on Thomas Tuchel’s lineup, and a prediction on the game. Check it out on Spotify or below: